“As global decarbonisation efforts accelerate, green hydrogen is emerging as an important solution for reducing emissions across hard-to-abate sectors that are difficult to electrify” opens the announcement of a new study by IDTechEx, a consultancy firm specialised in emerging technologies and market analysis.
In their new study, they forecast that the global green hydrogen market will reach 166 billion US dollars by 2037. These highly positive numbers are largely driven by demand from industries where electrification is more complex, if not economically unfeasible. According to the firm, the market value of green hydrogen technologies is set to grow globally by an average of 48 % annually over the next ten years.
The report, titled “Green Hydrogen Production & Electrolyzer Market 2027-2037: Technologies, Players, and Forecasts”, also provides insights and data on the market share of different green hydrogen production technologies: alkaline electrolysers (AEL), proton exchange membrane (PEM), anion exchange membrane (AEM), and solid-oxide electrolysers (SOEC). The future of each technology is analysed individually in this study, which also evaluates “key players and projects, examines supply chains and critical materials”, while factoring in the current regulatory frameworks across the most prominent global markets.
In a nutshell, these are the key conclusions reached by IDTechEx for the coming decade:
Green hydrogen remains vital for decarbonisation
As it stands, green hydrogen accounts for just 1 % of global hydrogen production, which is currently dominated by grey hydrogen (obtained from fossil fuels). However, this only highlights the urgent need to integrate green hydrogen into our daily lives, as it is one of the key models that will allow us to decarbonise our economies. In this regard, there is still massive room for growth.
Every type of electrolyser has its pros – and cons
As the consultancy explains, “each [electrolyser] technology is characterised by distinct cost structures, stack designs, material requirements, performance characteristics, and technology readiness levels (TRLs)”.
Alkaline technology (AEL), being the most established, offers lower production costs, whereas PEM electrolysers deliver higher power density and faster response times, “making them highly suited for integration with intermittent renewable energy sources”. Anion exchange membrane (AEM) technology, which we work with in ASTERISK, offers the best of both worlds, though it is still an emerging and less researched technology: “It combines the low-cost material advantages of AEL with the performance benefits of PEM electrolysers, such as fast response times and compact designs”. Finally, electrolysers using a SOEC system offer highly interesting opportunities to recycle waste heat in large industries, but they require very high temperatures to operate.
Anion exchange membrane (AEM) technology combines the low-cost material advantages of AEL with the performance benefits of PEM electrolysers, such as fast response times and compact designs.
Cost remains the core issue
According to the report, the fundamental hurdle preventing green hydrogen from dominating the market remains its production cost. In fact, in some regions of the world, it can be five to ten times more expensive than grey hydrogen. A large part of this price tag is due to the costs associated with renewable electricity: “Improving system efficiency, reducing equipment costs, and increasing utilisation rates are crucial to driving down the cost of green hydrogen”.
Europe steps up thanks to public policies
According to the data gathered in the IDTechEx report, the Asia-Pacific region, led by China, is the world’s largest electrolyser manufacturing hub. Europe continues to expand its production capacity, largely thanks to the push from public policies, including institutions such as the European Union and the Clean Hydrogen Partnership, which support projects like ASTERISK. Other measures such as the European Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) and China’s 15th Five-Year Plan are just a few examples of the firm commitments by political and economic stakeholders to secure the future of green hydrogen and the energy transition.
Source: Green Hydrogen Production & Electrolyzer Market 2027-2037: Technologies, Players, Forecasts